[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2797 (S18E37, Hsx/alpha) was inactive and stable. Region 2798 (S17E46, Cao/beta) produced a C1/Sf flare at 20/1253 UTC, in addition to several B-level enhancements. There were CMEs off the east and west limbs; none of which are expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a chance for a C-class flare, on 21-23 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-22 Jan. Moderate to high levels are expected by 23 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at or near background levels. Total magnetic field strength averaged around 5 nT, and the Bz component underwent only minor deviations. Wind speed settled around 325 km/s by the end of the UTC day. Phi continued to bounce between positive and negative solar orientations.

Forecast: A positive polarity CH HSS is still anticipated for 21 Jan although confidence is waning based on recent trends in solar wind data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Unsettled and active levels are likely if a positive polarity CH HSS originating from the northern crown connects with Earth on 21 Jan. Otherwise mostly quiet conditions can be anticipated through 23 Jan.

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