[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots on the visible disk. A slow-moving CME was evident in limited coronagraph imagery off the west limb at about 12/1300 UTC, likely associated with a filament eruption. Complete analysis will be conducted for any Earth-directed component as more imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 13-15 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 13 Feb. Moderate to high levels are expected on 14-15 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind was at background levels through about 13/000 UTC when wind parameters suggested a CIR, in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS, became apparent. Total field increased to near 15 nT, Bz reached -14 nT and wind speeds increased to near 550 km/s. The phi angle was in a mostly negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are anticipated to be elevated through 15 Feb with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast Quiet to isolated active periods are likely on 13-14 Feb as a negative polarity CH HSS influences the field. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 15 Feb.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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