[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 14-16 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 14-16 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected weakening influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component varied from +3 to -5 nT. Wind speeds gradually decayed through the period from a maximum of 532 km/s to near 360 km/s by periods end. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately negative sector.

Forecast: Solar winds are likely to be elevated through 16 Feb with the continuation of gradually declining CH HSS effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast Quiet to isolated active periods are likely on 14 Feb as a negative polarity CH HSS influences the IMF. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 15-16 Feb.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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