[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. New region 2802 (N19W31, Bxo/beta) developed over the period, but remained quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 18-20 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 20 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters showed a steady return to background levels in the wake of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field averaged 3-6 nT, the Bz components greatest southward deflection was briefly -5 nT, and wind speeds gradually declined to near 385 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: A recurrent, CH HSS (negative polarity) is forecast to cause enhancements in solar wind parameters on 20 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period.

Forecast Mostly quiet conditions are expected through 19 Feb under a nominal solar wind environment. A recurrent, CH HSS (negative polarity) is expected to arrive on 20 Feb. Several periods of Kp = 4 are anticipated with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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