[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots on the visible disk and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 17-19 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 19 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was slightly enhanced due to a SSBC followed by a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Total field values decreased over the period from a peak of 11 nT to 4-5 nT. The Bz component briefly reached -9 nT, the greatest deflection of the period, but was otherwise near neutral or northward. Wind speeds increased from near 350 km/s to near 430 km/s by periods end. Phi became predominantly negative near 16/1456 UTC.

Forecast: Slight enhancements to the solar wind environment are expected to continue through 17 Feb with ongoing HSS influences. A return to nominal conditions is anticipated by 19 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated into 17 Feb as a result of ongoing HSS activity. Isolated active periods are possible with prolonged periods of southward Bz. The rest of the forecast period (18-19 Feb) is expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for unsettled periods as a result of Earths proximity to the HCS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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