[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2804 (N18W27, Dso/beta) continued to exhibit slight growth, mainly in the trailing spots, but most of the associated flare activity has subsided. Region 2805 (S22W21, Cao/beta) continued to decay, and also remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for isolated C-class flaring on 24-26 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 14,236 pfu observed at 23/1520 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 24-26 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced from a waning negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed began the period near 580 km/s before decreasing to near 470 km/s by 24/0300 UTC. Total field strength averaged near 4 nT, while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Just after 24/0400 UTC, the IMF saw weak enhancements in the mag field, along with fluctuations in density, winds, and temperature, all possibly associated with arrival of the 20 Feb CME. Phi angle spent significant amounts of time in both the negative (towards) and positive (away) sectors throughout the period.

Forecast: With the probable arrival of the 20 Feb CME, enhancements in the IMF remain likely on 24 Feb. However, those enhancements should begin to taper off late in the day on 24 Feb. Ambient conditions should slowly return by 25 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, due to a combination of HSS activity coupled with the likely weak arrival of the 20 Feb CME.

Forecast: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on 24 Feb due to a combination of HSS activity coupled with the likely arrival of the 20 Feb CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 25 Feb followed by mostly quiet conditions on 26 Feb as activity diminishes.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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