[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2804 (N20W40, Dsi/beta) exhibited growth in its intermediate and trailer spots, and consolidation in the leader spots. This region continued to produce multiple low to mid-level B-class flares. Region 2805 (S22W34, Axx/alpha) continued to decay and remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flaring on 25-27 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum of 22,370 pfu observed at 24/1740 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 25-27 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent CME effects. Total field began the period slightly elevated to near 9 nT before slowly decreasing to end the period near 5 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative throughout the period, seeing a maximum southward deflection to -8 nT early. Solar wind speed ranged from 435-508 km/s, and the Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect persistent yet waning CME effects. Solar wind speed is expected to continue in the 450-550 km/s range before slowly returning to ambient conditions on 26-27 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active due to persistent CME effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels through midday on 25 Feb as CME effects persist. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 26-27 Feb.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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