[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity returned to very low levels. Both Region 2806 (S31W21, Bxo/beta) and Region 2807 (S18E23, Bxo/beta) exhibited overall decay, and were both inactive during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flaring on 04-06 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 4,798 pfu observed at 03/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 04-06 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed decreased from 615 km/s to near 500 km/s. Total field averaged near 5 nT, while the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly diminish to nominal levels on 04 Mar. By late on 05 Mar, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective, once again enhancing solar wind parameters. Solar wind speeds in the 550-600 km/s range are likely, based on sporadic STEREO-A solar wind data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period, due to CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods likely on 04 Mar as HSS effects slowly decrease. Unsettled to active levels are expected once again late on 05 Mar with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. HSS effects are expected to persist through 06 Mar causing unsettled to possible G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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