[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2807 (S18W01, Axx/alpha) lost its leader spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 06-08 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 06-08 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected the onset of a CIR followed by a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased above ~5 nT after 06/0015 UTC, peaking at 11 nT at 06/0410 UTC. The Bz component reached as far south as -8 nT at 06/0142 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased above 400 km/s after ~06/0415 UTC, with a maximum speed of 553 km/s observed at 06/0710 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from the negative to positive sector at 06/0213 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect continued, though gradually declining, enhancements from the positive polarity CH HSS over 06-08 Mar.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field increased from quiet to active levels due to the onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain disturbed over the next three days (06-08 Mar) as CH HSS effects persist. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 06 Mar. Activity is expected to decrease to active levels on 07 Mar and unsettled levels on 08 Mar as influence from the CH HSS slowly diminishes.

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