[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels early in the reporting period due to a C1 flare at 09/1235 UTC from Region 2808 (N18E61, Hsx/alpha); the region was otherwise stable. Region 2807 (S18W57) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares 10-12 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak of 1,413 pfu due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels through 10 Mar. A return to moderate levels is expected by 11 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels 10-12 Mar.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return to a slow regime. Total IMF strength averaged 4 nT, while the Bz component was directed primarily northward. Solar wind speed decreased from a peak near 475 km/s to ~400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly positive.

Forecast: A slow, ambient regime is anticipated to continue 10-11 Mar. Enhancements and disturbances in the IMF are likely late on 12 Mar due to an anticipated SSBC.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected 10-11 Mar as nominal solar wind conditions prevail. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated to give way to unsettled periods late on 12 Mar due to SSBC related effects.

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