[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2808 (N19E49, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and stable. New Region 2809 (S21E21, Bxo/beta) was assigned to a recently emerged spot group, but it was magnetically simple and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares 11-13 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak of 1,460 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels through 11 Mar. A return to moderate levels is expected by 12 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels 11-13 Mar.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength was primarily 3-5 nT and the Bz component was predominantly northward directed. Solar wind speed was mainly 350-425 km/s and the phi angle was mostly positive.

Forecast: A slow, ambient regime is anticipated to continue 11-12 Mar. Enhancements and disturbances in the IMF are likely mid to late 13 Mar due to an anticipated SSBC and CIR arrival ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected 11-12 Mar as nominal solar wind conditions prevail. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated to give way to unsettled and active periods mid to late on 13 Mar due to SSBC/CIR related effects.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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