[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2808 (N19E41, Cso/beta) decreased in lead spot penumbra coverage, but developed a small, weak spot in trailing polarity. Despite the minor growth, the region was inactive. Region 2809 (S21W01) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares 12-14 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak of 1,701 pfu observed at 11/1920 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels through the forecast period (12-14 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels 12-14 Mar.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of an enhanced and disturbed IMF, possibly due to an anticipated SSBC. Total IMF strength increased and reached a peak of 9 nT, while the Bz component turned in a prolonged southward direction and reached a maximum deflection of -8 nT. Solar wind speed varied between 329-387 km/s. The phi angle underwent an orientation shift from positive to negative at about 12/0550 UTC.

Forecast: An enhanced IMF, but generally slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue through a majority of 12 Mar. By 13 through 14 Mar, further enhancements in the solar wind are likely due to an anticipated effects followed by connection with a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled in response to the disturbed and enhanced IMF.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods are anticipated the remainder of 12 Mar in response to the disturbed and enhanced IMF. By 13 Mar, active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely due to combined CIR and CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected by 14 Mar as CH HSS effects slowly diminish.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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