[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2808 (N20E26, Cro/beta) developed trailing spots and produced a few B-class x-ray events. Region 2809 (S21, L=067) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 13-15 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak of 2,147 pfu observed at 12/1820 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels through the forecast period (13-15 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels on 13-15 Mar.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced this period due to CIR and negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total field strength reached 15 nT while Bz was sustained southward between 12/1600-2300 and 13/0300-0430 UTC. Solar wind speed values varied between 325-400 km/s.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 13-14 Mar due to sustained CH HSS influence. Solar wind parameters are expected to return to background conditions on 15 Mar as CH HSS influence diminishes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active this period due to a CIR and negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are expected, with isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions likely, on 13 Mar due to combined CIR and CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected by 14 Mar as CH HSS effects slowly diminish. A return to quiet levels is anticipated by 15 Mar.

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