[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2809 (S22W19, Bxo/beta) re-emerged with sunspots, but remained quiet. Region 2808 (N19E10, Hrx/alpha) was in decay, especially in the trailer spot area. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 14-16 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be a normal to moderate levels on 14-16 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced this period under sustained negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total field strength values reached 11 nT early in the period, and then decreased to around 5 nT as the period progressed. Bz was sustained southward through much of the day. Solar wind speeds increased from initial values of around 400 km/s to between 500-600 km/s by 13/2100 UTC, where they persisted through the remainder of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated on 14 Mar under continued negative polarity CH HSS influence. A slow return to nominal levels is expected over the course of 15 Mar, with nominal conditions expected to prevail on 16 Mar, as CH HSS influence wanes and subsides.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled until 13/2359 UTC when active conditions were observed until 14/0600 UTC. An isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions was observed at 14/0550 UTC due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for the remainder of 14 Mar, and quiet to unsettled on 15 Mar, as CH HSS influence wanes and subsides. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 16 Mar under a nominal solar wind regime.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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