[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2810 (N18E46, Hax/alpha) was stable and inactive. A slow CME first clearly observed departing from the NE limb at 18/0248 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C-2 may have been associated with a faint filament disappearance observed in SDO/AIA-304A imagery. However, initial analysis indicated a more northeast vector and an Earth-directed component appeared unlikely. We will analyze further as additional coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 18-20 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 5,870 pfu observed at 17/1505 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 18-19 Mar. Moderate levels are likely on 20 Mar in response to a CIR/HSS arrival. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels over the period. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 325-350 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-8 nT while the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) orientation and varied between sectors after 18/0000 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 18 Mar. By late on 19 Mar to early on 20 Mar, solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced with the arrival of a CIR preceding a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds near 600 km/s are anticipated based on recurrent trends.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 18 Mar and through most of 19 Mar. An increase to unsettled to active levels is expected by late on 19 Mar followed by unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 20 Mar as the aforementioned CIR/CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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