[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2811 (N20E47, Bxo/beta) produced a few B-level enhancements but was otherwise inactive. The new spot rotating across the northeast limb was unremarkable and inactive. It has been assigned as Region 2812 (N21E67, Hrx/alpha).

There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a dearth of productive spot groups.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,050 pfu observed at 22/1435 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 23-25 Mar, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected ongoing negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed gradually trended downward to around 500 km/s after starting the period closer to 600 km/s. Total field was less than 5 nT, and Bz mostly was in a near-neutral orientation. The phi angle remained predominately negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 23-24 Mar due to continued CH HSS influence, and the anticipated arrival of the 20 Mar CME late on 23 Mar/early on 24 Mar. Conditions should begin to moderate by 25 Mar as CH/CME effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels as negative polarity CH HSS influence continued. An isolated active period was observed.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 23-24 Mar due to waning CH HSS influence and the anticipated arrival of the 20 Mar CME. Conditions improve by 25 Mar.

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