[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2811 (N19E33, Bxi/beta) and Region 2812 (N21E53, Hsx/alpha) were both responsible for a few B-level enhancements, but were otherwise inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare, on 24-26 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 10,083 pfu observed at 23/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 24-26 Mar, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment continued to recover in the wake of negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed gradually trended downward from around 500 km/s to near 420 km/s. Total field was less than 6 nT, and Bz fluctuated between +/-4 nT. The phi angle was highly variable between negative and positive solar sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect continued weak enhancements on 24 Mar with the possible arrival of the 20 Mar CME and lingering CH HSS influence. Conditions should begin a gradual return to near background levels by 25 Mar as CH/CME effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with lingering negative polarity CH HSS activity.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 24 Mar due to continued, yet waning CH HSS influence, and the possible arrival of the 20 Mar CME. A return to quiet to unsettled conditions is expected on 25-26 Mar as CME/CH HSS influence subsides.

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