[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2811 (N20E14, Bxo/beta) exhibited overall spot decay and was inactive. Region 2812 (N21E34, Hsx/alpha) remained stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare, on 25-27 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 5,101 pfu observed at 24/2130 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 25-27 Mar, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected a return to near background levels through about 24/1920 UTC. Solar wind speed decreased to near 375 km/s, total field was at or below 5 nT, and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to near -5 nT. The phi angle was highly variable between negative and positive solar sectors.

A weak enhancement in the solar wind environment was then observed at approximately 24/1920 UTC, possibly indicating the arrival of the 20 Mar CME. Total field strength increased from 3 nT to 8 nT, Bz deflected southward from +3 nT to -7 nT, density sharply decreased, and wind speeds increased from 380 km/s to 448 km/s. By periods end, wind speeds decreased to near 400 km/s.

Forecast: The weak enhancements from the suspected CME arrival are likely to persist for the remainder of 25 Mar. Mostly background solar wind parameters are expected to return for the remainder of the period (26-27 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels for the first half of the period. Active to G1 (Minor) storm conditions were observed after 25/0048 UTC, all due to decreasing negative polarity CH HSS activity coupled with possible CME effects.

Forecast: Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of 25 Mar as CME effects persist. By 26-27 Mar, a return to background conditions is expected under an ambient solar wind regime.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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