[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2814 (S22E03, Cao/beta) was responsible for multiple B-class flares, the largest of which was a B8/Sf flare at 12/2004 UTC. Region 2814 continued to show slight growth and development over the period but maintains a simple beta magnetic configuration.

Other activity included two prominent eruptions. The first was centered near S38 on the SW limb beginning at 12/2327 UTC while the second was centered at S20 on the SE limb beginning at 13/0527 UTC. There was no evident CME signature in the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph on the prominence eruption off the SW limb. We are currently waiting on further coronagraph imagery for the SE limb, however any potential CMEs are not likely to have an Earth-directed component based on their location.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares from Region 2814.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 13-15 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 342-387 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative with deviations into a positive sector between 12/1250-1905 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at or near nominal levels on 13-15 Apr. Influences from a small, isolated positive polarity CH HSS may cause mild disturbances on 14-15 Apr.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 13-15 Apr with possible isolated unsettled conditions on 14-15 Apr due to minor CH HSS influences.

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