[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2814 (S22W11, Bxo/beta) was in decay until after 14/0000 UTC when new spots began appearing in the intermediate area. Several low level B-class flares were also observed from a region rotating around the SE limb near S25.

A faint partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 13/1936 UTC. Correlation with STEREO A COR 2 imagery shows the event to be backsided. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares from Region 2814.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 14-16 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 339-412 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-3 nT. Phi angle switched from a negative solar sector to positive at 13/1555 UTC.

Forecast: The IMF may become enhanced and disturbed due to an anticipated SSBC on 15 Apr. CIR arrival and onset of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS are expected on 16 Apr, likely increasing solar wind speed to over 500 km/s.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 14 Apr. Unsettled levels are possible on 15 Apr due to SSBC effects. Active conditions, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, are likely on 16 Apr due to combined CIR/CH HSS effects.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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