[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2814 (S22W24, Cri/beta) continued its growth then decay trend. Low level B-class flares were observed from a Region near S25E90, however no spots are visible in white light imagery as of yet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on Apr 15-17.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 15-16 Apr. CH HSS influences will provide for a chance of high levels on 17 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a slow moving CME, likely from 10 April. At approximately 15/0329 UTC, total field increased to 8 nT while the Bz component deflected south to near -7 nT for approximately 2 hours. Total field continued to increase to 10 nT by 15/0920 UTC. Solar wind speed ranged from 358-461 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Enhancements in the total field are likely to continue through 15 Apr as transient effects continue. Another enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected on 16 Apr due to the arrival of a CIR preceding an isolated negative polarity CH HSS. Elevated solar wind speed is anticipated to continue into 17 Apr and will likely be around 500-550 km/s based on sparse STEREO A Mag/Plastic data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to CME effects.

Forecast: Quiet to active levels are expected for the rest of the UTC day on 15 Apr as CME effects persist. Quiet to active levels are expected on 16-17 Apr with G1 (minor) storm conditions likely on 17 Apr as a negative polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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