[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2814 (S22W51, Bxo/beta) was in decay and produced multiple B-class flares this period. Region 2815 (S21W27) decayed into a plage group and Region 2816 (S24E53, Cao/beta) remained stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flare activity, over 17-19 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 17-19 Apr and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were enhanced this period and reflected influence from a CIR and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength values reached 13 nT while Bz was mostly southward, reaching a maximum deviation of -10 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from initial values near 450 km/s to ~580 km/s, before settling near 520 km/s by periods end. The phi angle was mostly stable in a negative sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 17-19 Apr due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels this period under CIR effects and negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Periods of minor (G1) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected on 17 Apr, with active conditions expected on 18-19 Apr, due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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