[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2814 (S22W65, Bxo/beta) maintained sunspots early in the period before decaying to plage. Region 2815 (S21, L=345) was plage. Region 2816 (S24E40, Cao/beta) was stable throughout the day and quiet.

A long-duration B9 flare and Type-II radio emissions were observed from an unnumbered area beyond the eastern limb at 17/1717 UTC. An associated CME from behind the east limb was detected in LASCO C2 imagery shortly following the B9 flare, however, this event is not Earth-directed. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class flare activity, over 18-20 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,090 pfu observed at 17/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 18-20 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS this period. Total field strength varied between 2-10 nT and Bz was southward at around -5/-10 nT at times during the period. Solar wind speeds were steady near 575 km/s. The phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: The enhanced near-Earth solar wind environment is expected to gradually decrease over the course of 18-20 Apr under continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels this period under continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Active conditions are expected on 18-19 Apr, with unsettled conditions expected on 20 Apr, due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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