[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2814 (S22, L=08) located around the southwest limb, provided the largest event of the period with a C1 flare at 20/1215 UTC. Region 2816 (S24E01, Cai/beta) produced multiple B-class flares. Region 2817 (N18W69, Dao/beta) continued its migration closer to the western limb and provided a C1/Sf flare at 21/0129 UTC, along with several B-class flares. Region 2818 (S17E59, Hsx/alpha) was stable and absent of significant flare activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flaring throughout the forecast period (21-23 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 13,400 pfu observed at 20/2010 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels throughout the forecast period (21-23 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remain elevated due to persistent CH HSS effects. Wind speed peaked at 668 km/s but ended the period near 550 km/s. Total field reached a period maximum value of 7 nT, while Bz dropped as low as -6 nT. Phi was predominately negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to dissipate towards background levels on 21-22 Apr. Late on 23 Apr, negative-polarity CH HSS influence is expected.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 21 Apr. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 22 Apr. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 23 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of a negative-polarity coronal hole.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation