[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2816 (S24W12, Cai/beta) produced multiple C-class flares including, a C3/1f flare at 22/0435 UTC. This flare was associated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. Region 2817 (N18W86, Dao/beta) produced several C-class flares including the largest event of the period, a C4 flare at 22/0921 UTC. Spot analysis was difficult for this region due to its proximity to the west limb. Region 2818 (S17E32, Hsx/alpha) was stable, lacking any significant flare activity. Analysis is ongoing to determine if any of these events contain an Earth-directed component. Of particular interest is the C3/1f flare from Region 2816 due to its center disk location and observed radio signatures.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares on 22-23 Apr.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 12,700 pfu observed at 21/1455 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels throughout the remainder of the forecast period (22-24 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment returned to near background conditions. Wind speed began the period near 650 km/s and gradually decreased to end the period below 420 km/s. Total field peaked at 6 nT. Bz dropped as low as -4 nT. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near background conditions until late on 23 Apr when negative-polarity CH HSS influence prevails.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the remainder of 22 Apr. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 23-24 Apr due to anticipated coronal hole activity.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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