[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2816 (S24W18, Cro/beta) produced multiple C-class flares, including a C3/1f flare at 22/0435 UTC. This flare was associated with Type II and Type IV radio sweeps and a partial-halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery. The CME was modeled and it was determined to have an Earth-directed component that is likely to pass Earth on day 3 (25 Apr) of the forecast. No other Earth-directed CMEs were noted.

There were 2 other spotted regions on the visible disk. Region 2817 rotated beyond the western limb. It did, however, manage to produce a C8/sf flare at 22/2011 UTC, in addition to a few other small C-class flares throughout the day. Region 2818 (S17E39, Hsx/alpha) was stable and really unremarkable.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares through 24 Apr.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 15,500 pfu observed at 22/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 25 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment became slightly elevated near the end of the 22nd due to a SSBC. Total field briefly increased to 5 nT, the Bz component was mostly -1 to -4 nT after 22/2000 UTC, and windspeeds averaged near 395-420 km/s. Phi has oscillated between both solar sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further elevated on 23 Apr with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions will recover some on 24 Apr before the arrival of a CME on 25 Apr.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 23 Apr with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. A CME is forecast to arrive the first half of 25 Apr. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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