[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Plage Region 2816 (S22, L=270) produced a C2/Sf at 25/0135 UTC. Associated with the event was coronal dimming and and a EUV wave which resulted in a narrow CME observed in STEREO COR2 imagery beginning at 25/0254 UTC. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery of the event was almost indiscernible. Initial WSA-ENLIL model showed no Earth-directed component.

An overall increase in area was observed in Region 2820 (S21W11, Dai/beta). New spot emergence was observed just to the SW of Region 2820 and was numbered as 2821 (S22W21, Cso/beta).

Other activity included a 23 degree long filament erupted along a channel centered near S37E56. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the E limb beginning at 25/1336 UTC. Initial analysis with limited coronagraph imagery and subsequent model output suggests a possible Earth impact early on 30 Apr. However, additional analysis will be needed as more imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares on 26-28 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 3,082 pfu observed at 25/0040 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 26-28 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of the 22 Apr CME. Solar wind speed ranged from ~450-500 km/s. Total field ranged from 5-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +6/-8 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to decline towards nominal levels late on 26 Apr as CME effects wane. Nominal conditions are expected on 27-28 Apr.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed due to CME effects.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of 26 Apr as CME effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 27-28 Apr.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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