[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Apr 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Apr 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2818 (S17W20, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet. Region 2820 (S21W25, Esi/beta) underwent some consolidation in its intermediate spots and increased in length. Region 2821 (S22W34, Dao/beta) experienced decay in its intermediate spots. Both were quiet, only producing B-level enhancements to the X-ray flux.

A filament eruption centered near S54W14 was noted in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery ending around 26/1635 UTC. STEREO Ahead coronagraph imagery suggests an Earth-directed component is possible. However, crucial LASCO C2/C3 imagery is missing from 26/2348-27/0624 UTC, ruling out a confident model run. Further assessments will be made as or if imagery backfills.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-Minor) flares on 26-27 Apr.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 29 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters showed continued, gradual recovery from the CME that arrived on 25 Apr. Total field peaked around 6 nT and the Bz component varied between +4/-5 nT. Wind speeds varied between ~475km/s and ~520 km/s for most of the period, but have shown a late decline with a move down to near 450 km/s. The phi angle was variable early in the period, but solidly moved into the negative solar sector near 26/2009 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to return to background levels through day 1 (27 Apr) as the lingering magnetic field cloud finally passes/dissipates.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Isolated unsettled conditions are expected to give way to mostly quiet conditions on 27 Apr as CME effects finally dissipate. Quiet levels are expected to persist through 29 Apr.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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