[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2818 (S15W78, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet. Region 2820 (S20, L=207) decayed to plage while Region 2821 (S21, L=227) quietly rotated around the W limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (01-03 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today with a peak of 1,836 pfu observed at 30/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 01 May. Flux levels are likely to drop to normal to moderate levels on 02 May with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS, followed by an increase to high levels on 03 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced. Solar wind speed ranged from 299-358 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-9 nT while the Bz component varied between +7/-6 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately positive solar sector.

Forecast: Some material from the filament eruption that occurred on 26 Apr may pass close enough to Earth to weakly elevate solar wind parameters on 01 May. Early on 02 May, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to move into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550 km/s range are likely. Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be enhanced on 03 May as HSS effects persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 01 May. Unsettled to active levels with a chance of G1 (Minor) storm periods are expected on 02 May with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03 May as HSS effects persist.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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