[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2818 (S16, L=206) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (02-04 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 02 May. With the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS, an increase to moderate-high levels is expected on 03-04 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced over the period. Total field ranged from 2-10 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-6 nT. Solar wind speed started to increase from approximately 305 km/s to near 375 km/s beginning at 01/1255 UTC coinciding with a solar sector boundary crossing (positive to negative).

Forecast: A series of positive polarity CH HSSs are expected on 02 and 04 May causing heightened solar wind activity. Speeds are likely to be in the 450-550 km/s with an initial increase in total field to around 10-20 nT with the arrival early on 02 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance of G1 (Minor) storm periods on 02 May due to coronal hole influence. Conditions are expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 03-04 May.

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