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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 May 03 0219 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 April - 02 May 2021
Solar activity was reached low levels on 26 Apr. A C1 flare from Region 2816 (S24, L=262, class/area Dai/120 on 19 Apr) at 26/0230 UTC was the largest of the period. A DSF was also observed on 26 Apr, lifting off around 26/1635 UTC. Most of the ejecta appears to have been headed to the SW of Earth's orbit, though the lack of available STEREO-A coronagraph imagery increased uncertainty around determining if an Earth-directed component was present. All of the other active regions were in decay and mostly quiet as they rotated towards the western limb. Only low-level B-class activity was observed over 27 Apr - 02 May.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was mostly normal to moderate with the exception of a brief high level (peak flux of 1,810 pfu reached at 30/1550 UTC) reached on 30 Apr.
Geomagnetic field activity range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) levels were observed on 26 Apr in response to enhancements from a CME that left the Sun on 22 Apr. Total magnetic field strength was weakly enhanced reaching 7 nT while Bz was sustained southward to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds were steadily elevated to speeds between ~480-500 km/s prior the G1 event. Geomagnetic conditions would decrease to quiet - unsettled levels on 27 Apr and into quiet over 28 Apr - 01 May as solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels. A slight increase to unsettled conditions was observed on 02 May due to what appears to be influence from the current sheet with a possible embedded weak transient.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 May - 29 May 2021
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 03-13 May and 25-29 May. High levels are likely on 14-24 May in response to multiple, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 13 May are likely to increase to G2 (Moderate) levels on 14 May. Active conditions are likely on 03-04 May, 12 May, 15-17 May and 20 May. Unsettled levels are likely on 05 May, 11 May, and 21 May. All anticipated elevations in geomagnetic activity are in response to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to at quiet levels.
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![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 May 03 16:10 UTC]()
Live data and images: SunSpotWatch.com
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