[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with a spotless disk. A CME, and an associated Type II Sweep (523 km/s), was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 02/1200 UTC. The CME occurred just beyond the E limb and is not Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the next three days (03-05 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 03-05 May due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced over the period. Solar wind speed ranged from about 310-450 km/s. Total field strength ranged from 5-14 nT while the Bz component varied between +9/-5 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately positive solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced on 03-05 May from a series of positive polarity CH HSSs. Speeds are likely to be in the 450-550 km/s range.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Unsettled to active levels are expected on 03-04 May followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 05 May due to HSS activity.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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