|
Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 May 10 0452 UTC.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 May 2021
Solar activity was at very low to moderate levels. Region 2822 (N18, L=335, class/area Dsi/180 on 09 May) rotated onto the visible disk on 07 May and produced an M3/1n flare at 07/1904 UTC. Associated with this flare were type II (816 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a non-Earth directed CME. C-class flares were observed on 08-09 May, including a long duration C2/Sf flare at 09/1449 UTC with an associated Type II (407 km/s) radio sweep and another CME beginning at 09/1436 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. A faint, partial-halo CME was also observed on 09 May associated with a 15 degree filament eruption centered near S22E10. The CME was first observed in C2 imagery beginning at 09/1124 UTC. The two CMEs from 09 May are being analyzed at the time of this report with the potential for at least one having an Earth-directed component.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels through the period.
Solar wind parameters were weakly enhanced on 03-05 May under a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 498 km/s at 03/2351 UTC while total field reached a maximum of 13 nT at 03/0500 UTC. The Bz component was mostly positive during this time resulting in quiet conditions. By midday on 05 May, solar wind speed had decreased to under 350 km/s and remained so through 09 May. Quiet conditions were observed for the rest of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 May - 05 June 2021
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with the chance for further M-class flares on 10-19 May as Region 2822 rotates across the visible disk. Very low to low levels are expected on 20-27 May with the return of old Region 2821 (S21, L=226). Very low levels are expected on 28 May-01 Jun. Very low to low levels are expected again on 02-05 Jun as Region 2822 rotates around the east limb.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be reach high levels on 16-19 May and again on 21-24 May due to recurrent CH HSS influences.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 10, 12-13, 15-18, 20-21 May. Active levels are expected on 15-17 and 20 May and G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 16 May due to recurrent CH HSS effects.
Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/
Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/
If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users:
1. https://Twitter.com/NW7US
2. https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io
https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather
Spread the word!
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Links of interest:
+ Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC
+ https://Twitter.com/NW7US
+ https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx
Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News:
I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more.
Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities.
You can help!
Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel:
https://www.patreon.com/NW7US
The YouTube channel:
https://YouTube.com/NW7US
..
![Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 May 10 16:10 UTC]()
Live data and images: SunSpotWatch.com
|