[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2822 (N18E37, Dao/beta-gamma) produced a C4/Sf at 09/1358. Region 2822 also produced a long duration C2/Sf flare at 09/1449 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (407 km/s) and a CME seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 09/1436 UTC. Newly numbered Region 2823 (N23E47, Cro/beta) was relatively quiet.

Other activity included a 15 degree filament eruption centered near S22E10 at approximately 09/1000 UTC. An associated CME was also observed beginning at 09/1123 UTC in STEREO A COR2 imagery. Initial analysis and modeling of the events suggests CME effects may be observed at Earth on 13 May.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for further M-class (R1-R2 radio blackouts) flares over 10-12 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate 10-12 May and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were slightly enhanced. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 12 nT. The Bz component has been primarily positive. Solar wind speeds remained low, between ~325-385 km/s. Phi angle transitioned from the positive sector to the negative sector after 10/0245 UTC, which suggested the passage of a SSBC.

Forecast: A weak enhancement from interaction with a small, negative polarity CH HSS is possible on 10-11 May. Nominal conditions are likely to prevail on 12 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 10-12 May, with isolated unsettled periods possible for 10-11 May.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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