[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Regions 2822 (N19E25, Dao/beta-gamma) and 2823 (S21E32, Cao/beta) were quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 radio blackouts) flares through 13 May, given the history and magnetic complexity of Region 2822.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate through 13 May and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were reflective of an ambient-like, background environment. Total field was 1-6 nT, Bz ranged -5 to 3 nT, and wind speeds averaged 310-350 nT. Phi oscillated between solar sectors.

Forecast: Minor interactions are anticipated on 11 May with continued current sheet effects, and eventually, possible interaction with a weak and narrow, negative polarity CH HSS. The CME mentioned earlier in this discussion is likely to arrive on 13 May but could arrive as early as late on 12 May, given the low confidence in the model initialization process.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated, unsettled levels for much of the next two days (11-12 May) until the 09 May CME arrives. There is a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms on 13 May and possibly on 12 May if the CME is moving faster than anticipated.

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