[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2822 (Dao/Beta-Delta, N19E17 at 12/0552) produced a C1.5 flare at 12/0935 UTC. This region showed little significant change over the past 12 hours. Region 2823 (Cro-Beta, S23E26 at 12/0552 UTC) remained stable. No earth-directed CMEs were seen in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery during the past 24 hours.

Forecast: A chance for C-class flares will persist through the forecast period. Region 2821 is anticipated to return on day 2 (13 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit are expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: An IP shock arrived at the DSCOVR spacecraft at 12/0547 UTC. Solar wind speed jumped from around 320 km/s to 450 km/s with similar jumps in density, temperature, and magnetic field. After a short period of southward Bz (-7nT) immediately after shock arrival, Bz was predominantly positive. Bt reached 20 nT but had declined to around 10 nT by forecast time. Bz also reached 20nT, but it was stubbornly positive during that roughly two hour period. This shock is most likely the early arrival of the 9 May CME.

Forecast: Disturbed solar wind conditions are expected to persist for the next 24 hours with CME passage. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to return for days 2 and 3 (13-14 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet until 12/0643 UTC when the IP shock arrived at earth. The arrival was marked by a 51 nT sudden impulse at the Fredericksburg, VA ground magnetometer. By 12/0711, the geomagnetic field activity had risen to active levels (Kp=4). Although a warning was issued for G1 (Kp=5) conditions, the predominantly positive Bz component inhibited minor storm conditions.

Forecast: A chance for active conditions will linger into day 2 (13 May) as the CME passes, with a lingering chance of a minor (G1) period. Day 3 (14 May) is expected to see a return to quiet to unsettled conditions.

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