[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2822 (N18W03, Dao/beta-delta) continued its slow decay and it produced only a few B-class enhancements. Region 2823 (S22E06, Hrx/alpha) also underwent decay and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected, with a chance for C-class flares 13-15 May due primarily to the minor instability of Region 2822.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels 13-15 May and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind conditions were indicative of weakening CME influences and minor CH HSS effects. Total IMF strength varied with the transient progression and peaked at 22nT at 12/1213 UTC. The Bz component underwent a prolonged and pronounced southward deviation that began around 12/1030 UTC and spanned to 12/1430 UTC, maximum southward deflection during this period was -20nT around 12/1211 UTC. Solar wind speed began the period near 475 km/s and escalated to a peak speed of 539 km/s at 12/2300 UTC (likely due to isolated negative polarity CH HSS influences) before it decreased and ended the period at ~425 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: CME effects are anticipated to steadily weaken on 13 May, with likely disturbed and enhanced periods still possible in response to the instability and variations associated with waning CME conditions. A return to a more ambient, background-like environment is anticipated on 14 May and a slow regime is expected on 15 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: Geomagnetic responses reached G3 (Strong) storm conditions from 12/1200-1800 UTC in reaction to the peak of the magnetic disturbances and enhancements associated with the transient. Conditions were quiet to unsettled afterwards.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period still possible in response to waning CME conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 May, and a return to primarily quiet conditions is expected on 15 May.

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