[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2822 (N18W16, Cao/beta) gradually decayed through the period. Region 2823 (S23W07, Axx/alpha) also underwent decay. The Region produced a B4/Sf flare at 14/0104 UTC. Coronal dimming was observed around the region in SDO/AIA 193 during the event and additional coronagraph imagery is needed to determine if there was an associated CME.

Dimming was also observed in SUVI 195 imagery near Region 2822 around 13/1600 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event showed the bulk of the ejecta directed above the ecliptic plane; however, the periphery of the CME is likely to pass by Earth around 18 May.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected, with a chance for C-class flares 14-16 May, due primarily to the flare potential of Region 2822.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 14-16 May.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a return to nominal conditions as influence from a passing CME diminished. Total magnetic field strength was at 5 nT for most of the period. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds were between ~445-380 km/s and in a steadily declining trend. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Nominal levels are expected to persist through 16 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels through 16 May.

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