[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2822 (N17W56, Hsx/alpha) stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 17-19 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 17-19 May.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were at near-background conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at 4-6 nT and no significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds were between ~310-425 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue near background levels over 16 May. Enhanced conditions are expected on 17 May due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. On 18-19 May, the anticipated arrival of the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 13 May, and a second CME that left the sun early on 14 May, are expected to cause further enhancements in solar wind parameters.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: On 17 May, an increase active conditions are likely in response to the onset of coronal hole influence. Modeling of a CME that left the Sun on 13 May suggests passage by Earth on 18 May. The resulting geomagnetic response is likely to be active to G1 (Minor) storm levels. Mostly unsettled to active, with a chance for isolated G1 storm levels are expected on 19 May due to lingering influences from the 13 May CME, as well as possible passage of the aforementioned 14 May CME.

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