[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels, thanks to a C1 flare from newly numbered Region 2824 (N18W71, Hsx/alpha). A Type II radio sweep (est. 106 km/s), associated with the C1 flare, was also observed at 18/0219 UTC. Region 2822 (N17W69, Hsx/alpha) remained quiescent. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C flares, over 18-20 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over 18-20 May.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters began the period at mostly background levels. Just after 17/1545 UTC, solar wind parameters indicated the likely arrival of the 13 May CME. Wind speeds increased from near 328 km/s to eventually see over 400 km/s, total field increased from 5 nT to 10 nT, and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT. Phi was predominantly negative with a few prolonged oscillations into a positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced with the likely arrival of the 14 May CME, coupled with -CH HSS influence, on 18 May, and remain so through 19 May. Conditions are expected to begin to taper off on 20 May as lingering CME influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period.

Forecast: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 18 May with the anticipated arrival of the 14 May CME and -CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected 19 May as -CH HSS effects continue and CME influence dissipates. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are expected 20 May as -CH HSS persists.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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