[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2824 (N19E45, Cao/beta) developed a couple of additional spots during the period, but remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares 20-22 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels 20-22 May.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained near background levels through most of the period. Just after 20/0830 UTC, a weak enhancement was observed in the IMF as abrupt changes were indicated in total field strength, Bz, and density. Eventually total field reached 18 nT, the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -15 nT, and wind speeds peaked just over 440 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly negative, with multiple oscillations into the positive sector during the second half of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the majority of 20-21 May due to the anticipated onset of a -CH HSS. Conditions are then expected to gradually decline on 22 May as -CH HSS influence dissipates.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels at the end of the period.

Forecast: Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated periods of G1 (minor) storming are expected on 20 May, with the anticipated onset of a -CH HSS. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 21-22 May, with a slight chance for isolated active conditions on 21 May.

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