[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2824 (N19E33, Hsx/alpha) exhibited little change, but showed a slight increase in B-level enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for isolated C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background readings.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels through 23 May, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 23 May.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary:

Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected persistent, yet waning, negative polarity CH HSS influence. By the end of the period, total field decreased to average near 4 nT, the Bz component was mostly positive, and wind speed was near 550 km/s after peaking just under 600 km/s. The Phi angle was predominantly negative, with isolated excursions into a positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through the remainder of 21 May, and possibly into 22 May with ongoing CH HSS activity.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming occurred during the 21/1500 UTC synoptic period. Conditions were unsettled to active thereafter.

Forecast: An isolated active period is still possible during the remainder of 21 May with ongoing CH HSS activity. Otherwise quiet to unsettled conditions are expected through 22 May. Mostly quiet conditions are expected by 23 May.

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