[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity decreased to low levels this period. Region 2824 (N19W07, Csi/beta-gamma) produced an isolated C2/1n flare at 23/1705 UTC, along with multiple B-class flares. The GOES-16 x-ray flux showed a decreasing trend in overall x-ray background throughout the period, however, Region 2824 continued to exhibit a complex magnetic structure. Region 2825 (N17E47, Axx/alpha) was stable and quiet.

Since early on 22 May, Region 2824 has produced multiple CMEs with several having Earth-directed components. These CMEs have been analyzed and consolidated into one model output. Analysis of the 22-23 May CMEs suggests these events are to arrive beginning late 25 May to early 26 May.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to gradually decrease over the next three days. Additional C-class flare activity is expected with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 24 May from Region 2824. C-class flare activity is likely with a slight chance for R1-R2 radio blackouts on 25 May. On 26 May, there is a chance for C-class flare activity.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 24-25 May, with high flux levels likely beginning on 26 May due to CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speeds were steady at around 400 km/s until around 24/0000 UTC, after which speed values decreased to around 350 km/s. Total field strength was in the 2-4 nT range and Bz varied between 0/-3 nT. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at background levels until late on 25 May when multiple CMEs from 22-23 May are expected to enhance solar wind parameters. Enhancements are expected to persist through 26 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 24 May through late on 25 May. Late on 25 May, field conditions are expected to increase to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to the arrival of the 22-23 May CMEs. Field conditions are expected to be at G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 26 May as CME effects persist.

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