[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels during the period. Region 2824 (N20W20, Cso/beta) continued to exhibit signs of decay, and only produced B-levels enhancements. Region 2825 (N17E39, Axx/alpha) remained unchanged throughout the period. Region 2826 (N42W39, Bxo/beta) was numbered during the period, but was also inactive.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 25-27 May.

On 22-23 May Region 2824 produced multiple CMEs with several having Earth-directed components. These CMEs have been analyzed and consolidated into one model output. Analysis of the 22-23 May CMEs suggests these events are to arrive beginning late 25 May to early 26 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,260 pfu at 1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels again on 25 May. Moderate levels are anticipated for 26-27 May due to CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Total field values averaged at 3 nT, Bz was +/- 2 nT, and wind speeds steadily decreased from near 365 km/s to just over 300 km/s by the periods end. Phi was in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at background levels until late on 25 May when multiple CMEs from 22-23 May are expected to enhance solar wind parameters. Enhancements are expected to persist through 27 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet through most of 25 May. Late on 25 May, field conditions are expected to reach active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels due to the arrival of the 22-23 May CMEs. Field conditions are likely to be at G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 26 May as CME effects persist. G1 (Minor) storming is likely to continue into early 27 May as lingering CME effects continue.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation