[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels during the period. Region 2824 (N20W36, Cso/beta) continued to exhibit signs of decay, and only produced B-level enhancements. Region 2825 (N17 L=143) decayed to plage. Region 2826 (N24W55, Cri/beta) exhibited the most growth over the period and continued to mature as the period progressed, however, only a pair of C1 events were observed over the period.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares on 26-28 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,530 pfu at 1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels 26-27 May due to CME effects, and then see a return to high levels 28 May as CME effects dissipate. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were at background levels. Total field values averaged 2-4 nT, Bz ranged from -3 nT to 1 nT, and wind speeds were ~310-330 km/s. Phi was primarily in a negative orientation until 26/0300 UTC before turning positive. Initial indications of the anticipated CMEs were visible in DSCOVR solar wind with an impulsive increase in solar wind at L1 from 300 km/s to 350 km/s at 26/1148 UTC. Bt increased initially from 3 nt to 8 nt as well. Well know more as additional data becomes available.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are anticipated to become enhanced early to midday on 26 May with the arrival of multiple CMEs from 22-23 May. Enhancements are expected to persist through 27 May and gradually return to a more nominal environment over the course of 28 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field conditions are likely to be at G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels late on 26 May as anticipated CME effects begin. G1 (Minor) storming is likely to continue into early 27 May as lingering CME effects continue. Mostly unsettled conditions, with the chance of an early isolated active period, are expected 28 May.

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