[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels during the period. Region 2824 (N20W50, Cso/beta) redeveloped a few small intermediate spots and produced a C1.4 flare. Region 2826 (N24W68, Dai/beta) continued to exhibit some growth and produced a few C level flares.

Several CMEs were observed off the limbs or far-side in SOHO LASCO, but no new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts 27-28 May due mainly to the potential of Region 2826. Activity is expected to return to very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares, 29 May as Region 2826 rotates off the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,150 pfu at 26/1735 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to and stay at moderate levels 27-29 May due to CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of the CMEs from 22-23 May. Bt decreased to less than 10 nT as CME activity waned. Bz had only brief moments at more than -10 nT and mostly near -2 nT. Solar wind speeds leveled off near 410 km/s.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to continue to be enhanced due to lingering CME effects over the remainder of 27 May. Parameters are expected to gradually decrease 28 May with ambient-like, background conditions returning 29 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated G1 (Minor) period.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field conditions are likely to be below G1 (Minor) by midday on 27 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 28 May as CME effects continue to dissipate. Mostly quiet levels are expected 29 May under a nominal environment.

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