[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at low levels during the period with B-class and C-class activity from both Regions 2826 (N22W79, Dko/Beta) and 2824 (N18W60, Dho/beta). The largest event was a C7/Sf flare at 27/2315 UTC from Region 2824. Both regions exhibited areal growth as they approached the west limb.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery/data.

Forecast: Over 28-29 May, C-class flare activity is likely with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout conditions. There is a chance for C-class flare activity on 30 May as Regions 2826 and 2824 rotate beyond the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 28-30 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a CME early in the period, followed by mostly ambient conditions through the latter half of the UTC day. Solar wind speeds ranged between 395-455 km/s throughout the period. Total field strength values were slightly enhanced early in the period, and reached a peak of around 9 nT. Bz was briefly southward at around -7 nT between 27/1445-1515 UTC, however, mostly neutral and northward values were observed from thereon. Solar wind density was between 5-10 ppcm early in the period, but gradually decreased to below 5 ppcm after 27/1800 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 28 May due to diminishing CME effects. Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 29 May. Another slight solar wind enhancement is likely on 30 May due to anticipated SSBC effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning CME influence from early in the period.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on 28-29 May as CME effects subside and ambient conditions prevail. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 30 May due to SSBC effects.

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