[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels this period with C-class flare activity from Region 2824 (N18W71, Dso/beta). The most notable event of the period was a long-duration C9/1f flare, with Type-II and IV radio emissions, at 28/2313 UTC from Region 2824. An associated CME was observed off the west limb in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 28/2312 UTC.

Initial analysis of the 28/2312 UTC CME suggests that most of the plasma is directed well west of the Sun-Earth line, however, additional analysis is underway in order to determine if a glancing blow is possible.

Region 2826 (N23, L=214) rotated beyond the west limb this period.

Forecast: Additional C-class flares from Region 2824 are likely, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, on 29 May. There is a chance for C-class flare activity on 30 May as Region 2824 transits the limb. Solar activity is expected to be very low on 31 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels this period. Following the long-duration C9/1f flare from Region 2824 at 28/2313 UTC, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded 10 pfu between 29/0300-0540 UTC. A peak flux of 15 pfu was observed at 29/0320 UTC.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels.

Forecast: There is a chance for an additional enhancement at the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm level on 29 May due to the flare threat and location of Region 2824. Barring additional flare activity, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to gradually decrease and return to background levels over 29 May, and persist at background levels over 30-31 May.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 29-31 May.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind speeds ranged between 370-450 km/s this period. Total field strength varied between 4-9 nT and Bz briefly reached -5/-6 nT between 29/0940-1000 UTC. Solar wind density increased to above 5 ppcm after 29/0430 UTC. The phi angle was mostly positive. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to become slightly enhanced on 30 May due to effects associated with a SSBC. Mostly ambient conditions are expected to prevail on 29 and 31 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 29 and 31 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated on 30 May due to effects associated with a SSBC.

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