[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 May 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 May 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2824 (N18W85, Cso/beta) produced a few B-flares as it began transiting the west limb. New Regions 2827 (N12E35, Cro/beta) and 2828 (S22E40, Axx/alpha) were numbered this period, but were otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over 30 May-01 Jun.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated early this period following the S1 (Minor) event from early on the 29th, but since have returned to background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

Forecast: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over 30 May-01 Jun. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced this period due to likely effects associated with a SSBC. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from initial values around 400 km/s to between 450-500 km/s. Total field strength ranged between 1-8 nT and Bz was southward between 29/1200-1400 UTC, but was mostly northward thereafter. The phi angle became variable after 29/1900 UTC and solar wind density reached a peak of 14 ppcm.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 30 May due to SSBC effects, with mostly ambient conditions expected on 31 May. On 01 Jun, the solar wind environment is likely to become enhanced due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS influence and the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of the 28 May CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 30 May due to effects associated with a SSBC. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 31 May. Unsettled and active field conditions are likely on 01 Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS influence and the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of the 28 May CME.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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