[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2021 May 31 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2021 May 31 0313 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 May 2021

Solar activity was at very low levels on 24-25 and 30 May while an increase to low levels occurred on 26-29 May. The majority of the flare activity was from Regions 2824 (N20, L=196, class/area Dho/250 on 27 May) and 2826 (N24, L=215, class/area Dko/280 on 27 May). The largest flare of the period was a C9/1f at 28/2313 UTC from Region 2824. Associated with this flare were Type II and Type IV radio sweeps along with a CME observed off the west limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 28/2312 UTC. WSA/ENLIL modelling of the CME showed the bulk of the plasma directed off the Sun-Earth line, however there was potential for a glancing blow late on 01 Jun to early on 02 Jun.

A greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) began at 29/0300 UTC, reached a peak flux of 15 pfu at 29/0320 UTC and ended at 29/0540 UTC associated with the aforementioned C9 flare on 28 May.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 24-26 May and decreased to normal-moderate levels on 27-30 May. The largest flux of the period was 1,530 pfu observed at 25/1825 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. The period began with nominal solar wind conditions and quiet levels through early on 26 May. At 26/1148 UTC, an impulsive increase in solar wind speed from approximately 300-350 km/s was observed with a simultaneous increase in total field from 3-8 nT, marking the arrival of a possible conglomeration of CMEs from 22-23 May. Total field continued to increase to 16 nT through early on 27 May while solar wind speed increased to 400-450 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels the second half on 26 May, followed by quiet to active levels on 27 May. Solar wind speed continued between 380-490 km/s through the end of the period. Quiet conditions were once again observed on 28 May followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 29-30 May.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 May - 26 June 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on 31 May - 11 Jun and again on 26 Jun. A slight chance for moderate (R1-Minor) flares exist on 12-25 Jun with the return of Region 2824 to the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 18-22 Jun due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 01-04 Jun due to a combination of CH HSS effects as well as the potential for a glancing blow from the 28 May CME late on 01 Jun to early on 02 jun. Unsettled to active levels are expected again on 16-17 Jun, with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 16 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Unsettled levels are likely on 26 Jun due to a possible reoccurring solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC).

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